Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

5G network slicing with QKD and quantum-safe security

We demonstrate how the 5G network slicing model can be extended to address data security requirements. In this work we demonstrate two different slice configurations, with different encryption requirements, representing two diverse use-cases for 5G networking: namely, an enterprise application hosted at a metro network site, and a content delivery network. We create a modified software-defined networking (SDN) orchestrator which calculates and provisions network slices according to the requirements, including encryption backed by quantum key distribution (QKD), or other methods. Slices are automatically provisioned by SDN orchestration of network resources, allowing selection of encrypted links as appropriate, including those which use standard Diffie-Hellman key exchange, QKD and quantum-resistant algorithms (QRAs), as well as no encryption at all. We show that the set-up and tear-down times of the network slices takes of the order of 1-2 minutes, which is an order of magnitude improvement over manually provisioning a link today

Agronomic Management of Indigenous Mycorrhizas

Many of the advantages conferred to plants by arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) are associated to the ability of AM plants to explore a greater volume of soil through the extraradical mycelium. Sieverding (1991) estimates that for each centimetre of colonized root there is an increase of 15 cm3 on the volume of soil explored, this value can increase to 200 cm3 depending on the circumstances. Due to the enhancement of the volume of soil explored and the ability of the extraradical mycelium to absorb and translocate nutrients to the plant, one of the most obvious and important advantages resulting from mycorrhization is the uptake of nutrients. Among of which the ones that have immobilized forms in soil, such as P, assume particular significance. Besides this, many other benefits are recognized for AM plants (Gupta et al, 2000): water stress alleviation (Augé, 2004; Cho et al, 2006), protection from root pathogens (Graham, 2001), tolerance to toxic heavy metals and phytoremediation (Audet and Charest, 2006; Göhre and Paszkowski, 2006), tolerance to adverse conditions such as very high or low temperature, high salinity (Sannazzaro et al, 2006), high or low pH (Yano and Takaki, 2005) or better performance during transplantation shock (Subhan et al, 1998). The extraradical hyphae also stabilize soil aggregates by both enmeshing soil particles (Miller e Jastrow, 1992) and producing a glycoprotein, golmalin, which may act as a glue-like substance to adhere soil particles together (Wright and Upadhyaya, 1998). Despite the ubiquous distribution of mycorrhizal fungi (Smith and Read, 2000) and only a relative specificity between host plants and fungal isolates (McGonigle and Fitter, 1990), the obligate nature of the symbiosis implies the establishment of a plant propagation system, either under greenhouse conditions or in vitro laboratory propagation. These techniques result in high inoculum production costs, which still remains a serious problem since they are not competitive with production costs of phosphorus fertilizer. Even if farmers understand the significance of sustainable agricultural systems, the reduction of phosphorus inputs by using AM fungal inocula alone cannot be justified except, perhaps, in the case of high value crops (Saioto and Marumoto, 2002). Nurseries, high income horticulture farmers and no-agricultural application such as rehabilitation of degraded or devegetated landscapes are examples of areas where the use of commercial inoculum is current. Another serious problem is quality of commercial available products concerning guarantee of phatogene free content, storage conditions, most effective application methods and what types to use. Besides the information provided by suppliers about its inoculum can be deceiving, as from the usually referred total counts, only a fraction may be effective for a particular plant or in specific soil conditions. Gianinazzi and Vosátka (2004) assume that progress should be made towards registration procedures that stimulate the development of the mycorrhizal industry. Some on-farm inoculum production and application methods have been studied, allowing farmers to produce locally adapted isolates and generate a taxonomically diverse inoculum (Mohandas et al, 2004; Douds et al, 2005). However the inocula produced this way are not readily processed for mechanical application to the fields, being an obstacle to the utilization in large scale agriculture, especially row crops, moreover it would represent an additional mechanical operation with the corresponding economic and soil compaction costs. It is well recognized that inoculation of AM fungi has a potential significance in not only sustainable crop production, but also environmental conservation. However, the status quo of inoculation is far from practical technology that can be widely used in the field. Together a further basic understanding of the biology and diversity of AM fungi is needed (Abbott at al, 1995; Saito and Marumoto, 2002). Advances in ecology during the past decade have led to a much more detailed understanding of the potential negative consequences of species introductions and the potential for negative ecological consequences of invasions by mycorrhizal fungi is poorly understood. Schwartz et al, (2006) recommend that a careful assessment documenting the need for inoculation, and the likelihood of success, should be conducted prior to inoculation because inoculations are not universally beneficial. Agricultural practices such as crop rotation, tillage, weed control and fertilizer apllication all produce changes in the chemical, physical and biological soil variables and affect the ecological niches available for occupancy by the soil biota, influencing in different ways the symbiosis performance and consequently the inoculum development, shaping changes and upset balance of native populations. The molecular biology tools developed in the latest years have been very important for our perception of these changes, ensuing awareness of management choice implications in AM development. In this context, for extensive farming systems and regarding environmental and economic costs, the identification of agronomic management practices that allow controlled manipulation of the fungal community and capitalization of AM mutualistic effect making use of local inoculum, seem to be a wise option for mycorrhiza promotion and development of sustainable crop production

Service provision and barriers to care for homeless people with mental health problems across 14 European capital cities

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Volcanic activity and hazard in the East African Rift Zone

Over the past two decades, multidisciplinary studies have unearthed a rich history of volcanic activity and unrest in the densely-populated East African Rift System, providing new insights into the influence of rift dynamics on magmatism, the characteristics of the volcanic plumbing systems and the foundation for hazard assessments. The raised awareness of volcanic hazards is driving a shift from crisis response to reducing disaster risks, but a lack of institutional and human capacity in sub-Saharan Africa means baseline data are sparse and mitigating geohazards remains challenging

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation

Rpgrip1 is required for rod outer segment development and ciliary protein trafficking in zebrafish

The authors would like to thank the Royal Society of London, the National Eye Research Centre, the Visual Research Trust, Fight for Sight, the W.H. Ross Foundation, the Rosetrees Trust, and the Glasgow Children’s Hospital Charity for supporting this work. This work was also supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Saud University for funding this research (Research Project) grant number ‘RGP – VPP – 219’.Mutations in the RPGR-interacting protein 1 (RPGRIP1) gene cause recessive Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA), juvenile retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and cone-rod dystrophy. RPGRIP1 interacts with other retinal disease-causing proteins and has been proposed to have a role in ciliary protein transport; however, its function remains elusive. Here, we describe a new zebrafish model carrying a nonsense mutation in the rpgrip1 gene. Rpgrip1homozygous mutants do not form rod outer segments and display mislocalization of rhodopsin, suggesting a role for RPGRIP1 in rhodopsin-bearing vesicle trafficking. Furthermore, Rab8, the key regulator of rhodopsin ciliary trafficking, was mislocalized in photoreceptor cells of rpgrip1 mutants. The degeneration of rod cells is early onset, followed by the death of cone cells. These phenotypes are similar to that observed in LCA and juvenile RP patients. Our data indicate RPGRIP1 is necessary for rod outer segment development through regulating ciliary protein trafficking. The rpgrip1 mutant zebrafish may provide a platform for developing therapeutic treatments for RP patients.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Gain control network conditions in early sensory coding

Gain control is essential for the proper function of any sensory system. However, the precise mechanisms for achieving effective gain control in the brain are unknown. Based on our understanding of the existence and strength of connections in the insect olfactory system, we analyze the conditions that lead to controlled gain in a randomly connected network of excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We consider two scenarios for the variation of input into the system. In the first case, the intensity of the sensory input controls the input currents to a fixed proportion of neurons of the excitatory and inhibitory populations. In the second case, increasing intensity of the sensory stimulus will both, recruit an increasing number of neurons that receive input and change the input current that they receive. Using a mean field approximation for the network activity we derive relationships between the parameters of the network that ensure that the overall level of activity of the excitatory population remains unchanged for increasing intensity of the external stimulation. We find that, first, the main parameters that regulate network gain are the probabilities of connections from the inhibitory population to the excitatory population and of the connections within the inhibitory population. Second, we show that strict gain control is not achievable in a random network in the second case, when the input recruits an increasing number of neurons. Finally, we confirm that the gain control conditions derived from the mean field approximation are valid in simulations of firing rate models and Hodgkin-Huxley conductance based models